{
  "series_id": "weather-deep-targets-wind",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T102513Z-weather-deep-targets-wind-gh33744051892",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-wind-sample",
      "text": "The registered sample gate for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph contains 101 condition games and 807 control games through the 2024 NFL season.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-wind-deep_target_rate",
      "text": "Deep-target rate averaged 10.8% in 15+ mph wind games and 10.8% in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -0.0 pts with a 95% interval from -0.8 pts to +0.8 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.975.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-wind-deep_completion_rate",
      "text": "Deep completion rate averaged 32.4% in 15+ mph wind games and 36.1% in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -3.8 pts with a 95% interval from -7.6 pts to -0.1 pts and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.094.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-wind-deep_target_epa",
      "text": "EPA per deep target averaged 0.218 in 15+ mph wind games and 0.399 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -0.189 with a 95% interval from -0.362 to -0.017 and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.094.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-deep-targets-wind-scope",
      "text": "The estimates are retrospective associations from observed game conditions; they do not establish causality or prove that a pregame weather forecast improves fantasy projections.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "data/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}