{
  "series_id": "weather-deep-targets-wind",
  "version": "1.3.0",
  "question": "In NFL games with observed wind of at least 15 mph, do offenses attempt fewer deep passes or merely complete them less efficiently than below 10 mph?",
  "hypothesis": "NFL games with observed winds of at least 15 mph have lower deep-target rates, deep completion rates, and EPA per deep target than games below 10 mph.",
  "estimand": "Observed game-level association for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games from 2018 through the latest usable source season",
  "outcomes": [
    "deep_target_rate",
    "deep_completion_rate",
    "deep_target_epa"
  ],
  "features": [
    "registered weather or roof contrast",
    "week and season fixed effects; air temp c"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "This is a retrospective completed-season association study. Observed conditions are never eligible as pregame projection inputs.",
  "baselines": [
    "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph",
    "Adjusted and unadjusted group comparisons"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "Deep-target rate",
    "Deep completion rate",
    "EPA per deep target"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000 game-level bootstrap draws and HC3 robust OLS intervals",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Week and season fixed effects",
    "Holm correction across the preregistered outcome family",
    "Per-outcome denominator reconciliation",
    "Temperature control without adjusting away the defining wind exposure",
    "Primary and secondary station wind mean absolute difference"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "fewer than 750 comparable games",
    "fewer than 100 condition games",
    "source rights, observation coverage, station agreement, or reproducibility fails"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T09:59:24.719383+00:00"
}