{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked registration: the registered contrast (observed 15+ mph vs below 10 mph), all three preregistered outcomes, week/season fixed effects plus air temperature controls, Holm correction across the outcome family, 4,000-draw bootstrap with HC3 intervals, and the withholding gates (101 condition games, 908 comparable games) are all present and consistent between analysis.json, the article, the claim ledger, and the publication assets. Predictive/forecast claims are correctly separated from retrospective association claims, and the article explicitly disclaims causality and sit/start rules. All required artifacts (registration, receipts, reproducibility, effects, figure, table, claim ledger) are present with hashes.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "registration_match",
      "evidence": "locked_registration.outcomes vs analysis.json#effects",
      "recommendation": "All three registered outcomes are reported with adjusted and unadjusted estimates, both interval types, and Holm-adjusted p-values; no unregistered outcomes or contrasts appear in the article or claim ledger."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "uncertainty_reporting",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#effects deep_completion_rate bootstrap_ci_95_upper = 0.0005178 (includes zero); bootstrap_p_value = 0.054",
      "recommendation": "The article's statement that 'both intervals exclude zero' is accurate for the HC3 adjusted intervals it cites, but the bootstrap interval for deep completion rate does include zero and the bootstrap p-value is 0.054. The article already frames the efficiency results as 'suggestive, not settled'; consider also noting the bootstrap interval for deep completion rate to avoid overreading the adjusted interval alone."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "freshness",
      "evidence": "freshness_requirement.expected_season = 2025; source_lag.available_through = 2024 with handling 'Weather-dependent studies stop at the latest available season; the next refresh retries automatically.'",
      "recommendation": "The study runs through 2024, one season below the expected 2025 season, because the NOAA weather source stops at 2024. This is a disclosed scope limitation handled per the stated source-lag policy and disclosed in the article limitations; it is not a blocking departure."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "denominator_reconciliation",
      "evidence": "analysis.json#sample.outcome_denominators: deep_completion_rate and deep_target_epa undefined in 1 comparable game (907 total); article methods disclose this",
      "recommendation": "Per-outcome denominator accounting is reconciled and disclosed; no action needed."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "claim_ledger",
      "evidence": "claim_ledger.claims all status = supported with evidence paths",
      "recommendation": "All numeric claims in the article trace to the claim ledger and match the analysis values; no superlatives or unregistered cross-study comparisons were found."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/registration.json",
    "data/results.json",
    "data/study-effects.csv",
    "data/reproducibility.json",
    "data/source-manifest.json",
    "data/source-receipts/nflverse.json",
    "data/source-receipts/noaa-global-hourly.json",
    "data/source-receipts/wikidata-stadiums.json",
    "data/station-agreement.json",
    "data/study-decisions.json",
    "data/gates.json",
    "data/coverage.csv",
    "data/evaluation-run.json",
    "figures/weather-deep-targets-wind-effects.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-proposal.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json",
    "openrouter-call-ledger.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T10:25:40.085460+00:00"
}