{
  "series_id": "weather-position-effects",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T103128Z-weather-position-effects-gh33744582114",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-position-effects-sample",
      "text": "The registered sample gate for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph with complete position scoring contains 101 condition games and 806 control games through the 2024 NFL season.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-position-effects-qb_fantasy_points_ppr",
      "text": "Combined QB PPR points averaged 31.6 in 15+ mph wind games and 33.8 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -2.0 points with a 95% interval from -4.6 points to +0.6 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.396.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-position-effects-rb_fantasy_points_ppr",
      "text": "Combined RB PPR points averaged 46.9 in 15+ mph wind games and 45.0 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was +1.8 points with a 95% interval from -1.7 points to +5.2 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.491.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-position-effects-wr_fantasy_points_ppr",
      "text": "Combined WR PPR points averaged 63.0 in 15+ mph wind games and 68.5 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -2.6 points with a 95% interval from -7.0 points to +1.8 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.491.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-position-effects-te_fantasy_points_ppr",
      "text": "Combined TE PPR points averaged 22.4 in 15+ mph wind games and 24.7 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -2.9 points with a 95% interval from -5.5 points to -0.4 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.129.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-position-effects-kicker_fantasy_points",
      "text": "Combined kicker fantasy points averaged 13.9 in 15+ mph wind games and 16.0 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -1.4 points with a 95% interval from -2.7 points to -0.2 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.129.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-position-effects-scope",
      "text": "The estimates are retrospective associations from observed game conditions; they do not establish causality or prove that a pregame weather forecast improves fantasy projections.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "data/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}