{
  "research_audit": {
    "temporal_validation": {
      "name": "observed-versus-forecast boundary",
      "passed": true,
      "details": "Postgame observations support historical research only and cannot enter a pregame projection feature."
    },
    "baseline_checks": [
      {
        "name": "registered contrast",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph with complete position scoring"
      },
      {
        "name": "adjusted and unadjusted estimates",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Every outcome preserves group means plus adjusted and unadjusted differences."
      }
    ],
    "uncertainty": {
      "name": "bootstrap and robust intervals",
      "passed": true,
      "details": "Every outcome reports a bootstrap comparison and an HC3 robust adjusted interval."
    },
    "missingness": {
      "input_rows": 2127,
      "analyzed_rows": 907,
      "excluded_rows": 1220,
      "missing_by_field": {
        "outside_registered_contrast_or_incomplete": 1220,
        "weekly_position_scoring": 1
      },
      "reconciled": true
    },
    "sensitivity_checks": [
      {
        "name": "multiplicity correction",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Holm-adjusted p-values cover the preregistered outcome family."
      },
      {
        "name": "per-outcome denominator accounting",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Each outcome records its own condition, control, and undefined-game counts; field-goal accuracy is undefined when neither team attempted a field goal."
      },
      {
        "name": "deterministic bootstrap",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Each outcome bootstrap uses a SHA-256-derived seed label and two complete analysis executions produced the same result hash."
      },
      {
        "name": "station agreement",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "At least 1,000 games have paired-station wind readings and their mean absolute difference is no more than 2.5 m/s."
      },
      {
        "name": "weekly position-scoring coverage",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Every completed season is present and at least 99.9% of games include both teams' QB, RB, WR, and TE scoring."
      }
    ],
    "leakage_checks": [
      {
        "name": "prediction boundary",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "The article cannot describe observed postgame weather as a forecast input."
      }
    ],
    "withholding_checks": [
      {
        "name": "study sample gate",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "101 condition and 907 comparable games cleared the registered floors."
      },
      {
        "name": "evidence bundle gates",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Rights, coverage, station agreement, and reproducibility gates passed."
      },
      {
        "name": "association scope",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "The study is limited to association and does not claim causality."
      }
    ]
  },
  "study": "Does 15+ MPH Wind Increase Fantasy Scoring Volatility in NFL Games?",
  "study_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility",
  "data_through": 2024,
  "population": "NFL regular-season games",
  "estimand": "Observed association for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph with complete position scoring, with adjusted and unadjusted game-level comparisons.",
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    "comparable_games": 907,
    "minimum_complete_games": 750,
    "minimum_condition_games": 100,
    "outcome_denominators": {
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        "total_games": 907,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
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      "primary:rb_ppr_absolute_deviation": {
        "condition_games": 101,
        "control_games": 806,
        "total_games": 907,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
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      "primary:wr_ppr_absolute_deviation": {
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        "total_games": 907,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
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      "primary:te_ppr_absolute_deviation": {
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        "total_games": 907,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
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      "primary:kicker_points_absolute_deviation": {
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        "total_games": 907,
        "not_defined_in_comparable_games": 0
      }
    }
  },
  "contrast": "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph with complete position scoring",
  "effects": [
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      "condition_label": "15+ mph wind",
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      "outcome": "qb_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "label": "QB PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median",
      "units": "points-absolute-deviation",
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      "condition_estimate": 8.581089108910891,
      "control_estimate": 9.04165012406948,
      "unadjusted_difference": -0.4605610151585875,
      "bootstrap_ci_95_lower": -1.9706144264550531,
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      "holm_adjusted_p": 1.0
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      "outcome": "rb_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "label": "RB PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median",
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      "bootstrap_p_value": 0.0755,
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      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": 3.476286845683891,
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      "outcome": "wr_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "label": "WR PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median",
      "units": "points-absolute-deviation",
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      "condition_label": "15+ mph wind",
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      "outcome": "te_ppr_absolute_deviation",
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      "condition_label": "15+ mph wind",
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      "outcome": "kicker_points_absolute_deviation",
      "label": "Kicker points absolute deviation from the weekly median",
      "units": "points-absolute-deviation",
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      "adjusted_ci_95_upper": 0.8166212170042737,
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      "holm_adjusted_p": 1.0
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  ],
  "source_lag": {
    "available_through": "2024",
    "handling": "Weather-dependent studies stop at the latest available season; the next refresh retries automatically.",
    "requested_through": "2025",
    "source_key": "noaa-global-hourly"
  },
  "source_applicability": {
    "football_data_through": 2025,
    "observed_weather_data_through": 2024,
    "observed_weather_role": "defines the 15+ mph and below-10-mph comparison groups",
    "weekly_player_data_through": 2025,
    "weekly_position_scoring_coverage": 0.999529854254819
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  "reproducibility": {
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    "matched": true,
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    "bootstrap_repetitions": 4000,
    "bootstrap_seed_policy": "NumPy PCG64 seeded separately for each outcome from the unsigned integer encoded by the first eight bytes of SHA-256(study_id:outcome).",
    "seed_labels": [
      "weather-fantasy-volatility:primary:qb_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "weather-fantasy-volatility:primary:rb_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "weather-fantasy-volatility:primary:wr_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "weather-fantasy-volatility:primary:te_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "weather-fantasy-volatility:primary:kicker_points_absolute_deviation"
    ]
  }
}