{
  "series_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T103910Z-weather-fantasy-volatility-gh33745300843",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility-sample",
      "text": "The registered sample gate for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph with complete position scoring contains 101 condition games and 806 control games through the 2024 NFL season.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/study-decisions.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility-qb_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "text": "QB PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median averaged 8.6 in 15+ mph wind games and 9.0 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -0.6 points with a 95% interval from -2.4 points to +1.1 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 1.000.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility-rb_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "text": "RB PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median averaged 11.7 in 15+ mph wind games and 10.0 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was +1.2 points with a 95% interval from -1.0 points to +3.5 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 1.000.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility-wr_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "text": "WR PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median averaged 14.5 in 15+ mph wind games and 15.7 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -2.1 points with a 95% interval from -5.1 points to +0.9 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.874.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility-te_ppr_absolute_deviation",
      "text": "TE PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median averaged 8.7 in 15+ mph wind games and 8.8 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was -0.3 points with a 95% interval from -2.0 points to +1.3 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 1.000.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility-kicker_points_absolute_deviation",
      "text": "Kicker points absolute deviation from the weekly median averaged 4.3 in 15+ mph wind games and 4.3 in below 10 mph games; the adjusted change was +0.0 points with a 95% interval from -0.8 points to +0.8 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 1.000.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#effects",
        "data/study-effects.csv"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility-scope",
      "text": "The estimates are retrospective associations from observed game conditions; they do not establish causality or prove that a pregame weather forecast improves fantasy projections.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#estimand",
        "data/registration.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data",
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://www.wikidata.org/"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}