{
  "series_id": "weather-fantasy-volatility",
  "version": "1.3.0",
  "question": "In NFL games with observed wind of at least 15 mph, do position-group fantasy totals vary more from the weekly median than in games below 10 mph?",
  "hypothesis": "NFL games with observed winds of at least 15 mph have larger absolute deviations from the season-week position median than games below 10 mph.",
  "estimand": "Observed game-level association for observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph with complete position scoring; not a causal effect or a pregame forecast evaluation.",
  "population": "NFL regular-season games from 2018 through the latest usable source season",
  "outcomes": [
    "qb_ppr_absolute_deviation",
    "rb_ppr_absolute_deviation",
    "wr_ppr_absolute_deviation",
    "te_ppr_absolute_deviation",
    "kicker_points_absolute_deviation"
  ],
  "features": [
    "registered weather or roof contrast",
    "week and season fixed effects; air temp c; home team and away team fixed effects"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "This is a retrospective completed-season association study. Observed conditions are never eligible as pregame projection inputs.",
  "baselines": [
    "observed 15+ mph wind vs below 10 mph with complete position scoring",
    "Adjusted and unadjusted group comparisons"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "QB PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median",
    "RB PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median",
    "WR PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median",
    "TE PPR absolute deviation from the weekly median",
    "Kicker points absolute deviation from the weekly median"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000 game-level bootstrap draws and HC3 robust OLS intervals",
  "sensitivities": [
    "Week and season fixed effects",
    "Holm correction across the preregistered outcome family",
    "Per-outcome denominator reconciliation",
    "Home- and away-team composition controls",
    "Temperature control without adjusting away the defining wind exposure",
    "Primary and secondary station wind mean absolute difference",
    "Complete QB, RB, WR, and TE scoring for at least 99.9% of football games"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "fewer than 750 comparable games",
    "fewer than 100 condition games",
    "source rights, observation coverage, station agreement, or reproducibility fails",
    "weekly position scoring covers less than 99.9% of completed football games"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-03T09:59:24.719383+00:00"
}