{
  "research_audit": {
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      "name": "cutoff-safe forecast scoring",
      "passed": true,
      "details": "Every retained HRRR object proves source availability before its registered 6-hour or 24-hour cutoff."
    },
    "baseline_checks": [
      {
        "name": "paired horizon baseline",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Six-hour forecasts are compared with 24-hour forecasts for the same stadium-games inside each HRRR version."
      }
    ],
    "uncertainty": {
      "name": "deterministic bootstrap intervals",
      "passed": true,
      "details": "Every error mean and paired horizon difference has a 4,000-draw nonparametric bootstrap interval."
    },
    "missingness": {
      "input_rows": 2516,
      "analyzed_rows": 2205,
      "excluded_rows": 311,
      "missing_by_field": {
        "unresolved_archive_requests": 311
      },
      "reconciled": true
    },
    "sensitivity_checks": [
      {
        "name": "model-version stratification",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "HRRRv3 and HRRRv4 errors are never pooled into one headline estimate."
      },
      {
        "name": "deterministic rerun",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Two complete scorecard executions produced the same result hash."
      }
    ],
    "leakage_checks": [
      {
        "name": "postgame observation boundary",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "NOAA observations score forecasts after games and never become forecast inputs."
      }
    ],
    "withholding_checks": [
      {
        "name": "forecast release gates",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Sample, coverage, version, cutoff, and reproducibility gates all pass."
      }
    ]
  },
  "study": "NFL Weather Forecast Accuracy: 6 vs. 24 Hours Before Kickoff",
  "study_id": "weather-forecast-skill",
  "data_through": 2024,
  "population": "NFL regular-season stadium-game forecasts",
  "estimand": "Cutoff-safe forecast error and paired 6-hour-minus-24-hour error; negative paired differences mean the 6-hour forecast was more accurate.",
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    "completed_forecasts": 2205,
    "coverage": 0.8763910969793323,
    "stadium_coverage": 1.0
  },
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      "wind_mae_mps": 1.1158654144911235,
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      "wind_mae_mps": 1.210438379877655,
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    {
      "cutoff_hours": 6,
      "forecast_missingness": 0.0,
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      "precipitation_brier_score": 0.10463576158940398,
      "precipitation_calibration": [
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      "wind_mae_mps": 1.0567595888399106,
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      "cutoff_hours": 24,
      "forecast_missingness": 0.0,
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      "precipitation_brier_score": 0.1206896551724138,
      "precipitation_calibration": [
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      "wind_mae_mps": 1.125241202763479,
      "wind_pairs": 739
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  ],
  "horizon_comparisons": [
    {
      "comparison": "6-hour minus 24-hour forecast error",
      "complete_pairs": 316,
      "precipitation_brier_difference": -0.009404388714733543,
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      "temperature_mae_difference_c": -0.14607692307692427,
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      "wind_mae_difference_mps": -0.08396094082934016,
      "wind_mae_difference_mps_ci_95": [
        -0.14384159339740574,
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    },
    {
      "comparison": "6-hour minus 24-hour forecast error",
      "complete_pairs": 739,
      "precipitation_brier_difference": -0.015915119363395226,
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      "temperature_mae_difference_c": -0.2813351652412845,
      "temperature_mae_difference_c_ci_95": [
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      "wind_mae_difference_mps": -0.06924577438009134,
      "wind_mae_difference_mps_ci_95": [
        -0.11488357790137955,
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    }
  ],
  "method_amendment": {
    "from_analysis_version": "1.0.0",
    "locked_at": "2026-09-03T10:00:00+00:00",
    "locked_before_release_sample": true,
    "reason": "The pilot scorecard reported point errors only. Version 1.1.0 preregistered uncertainty before the 85% release sample and before public forecast-skill claims."
  }
}