{
  "series_id": "weather-forecast-skill",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T153251Z-weather-forecast-skill-gh33772915699",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-sample",
      "text": "The released scorecard contains 2,205 cutoff-safe forecasts from 2,516 registered requests (87.6% coverage).",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#sample",
        "data/forecast/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-cutoff-integrity",
      "text": "Every scored HRRR forecast proves source availability before its registered 6-hour or 24-hour pregame cutoff.",
      "kind": "source",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#research_audit",
        "data/forecast/evaluation-run.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-hrrrv3-temperature_mae_difference_c",
      "text": "For HRRRv3, paired 6-hour minus 24-hour temperature MAE was -0.146 \u00b0C, with a 95% bootstrap interval from -0.253 to -0.038 \u00b0C; negative values favor the 6-hour forecast.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#horizon_comparisons",
        "data/forecast/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-hrrrv3-wind_mae_difference_mps",
      "text": "For HRRRv3, paired 6-hour minus 24-hour wind MAE was -0.084 m/s, with a 95% bootstrap interval from -0.144 to -0.024 m/s; negative values favor the 6-hour forecast.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#horizon_comparisons",
        "data/forecast/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-hrrrv3-precipitation_brier_difference",
      "text": "For HRRRv3, paired 6-hour minus 24-hour precipitation Brier score was -0.009, with a 95% bootstrap interval from -0.041 to +0.022; negative values favor the 6-hour forecast.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#horizon_comparisons",
        "data/forecast/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-hrrrv4-temperature_mae_difference_c",
      "text": "For HRRRv4, paired 6-hour minus 24-hour temperature MAE was -0.281 \u00b0C, with a 95% bootstrap interval from -0.350 to -0.214 \u00b0C; negative values favor the 6-hour forecast.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#horizon_comparisons",
        "data/forecast/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-hrrrv4-wind_mae_difference_mps",
      "text": "For HRRRv4, paired 6-hour minus 24-hour wind MAE was -0.069 m/s, with a 95% bootstrap interval from -0.115 to -0.024 m/s; negative values favor the 6-hour forecast.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#horizon_comparisons",
        "data/forecast/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-forecast-hrrrv4-precipitation_brier_difference",
      "text": "For HRRRv4, paired 6-hour minus 24-hour precipitation Brier score was -0.016, with a 95% bootstrap interval from -0.038 to +0.005; negative values favor the 6-hour forecast.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#horizon_comparisons",
        "data/forecast/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/integrated-surface-database",
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}