{
  "role": "code_methods_reviewer",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The implementation matches the locked registration: paired 6-hour-minus-24-hour differences within separate HRRRv3 and HRRRv4 strata, MAE for temperature/wind, Brier for precipitation, 4,000-draw deterministic bootstrap intervals on every mean and paired difference, and cutoff-safe forecast scoring with observations joined only retrospectively. Withholding gates are satisfied (2,205 cutoff-safe forecasts \u2265 1,000; 87.6% coverage \u2265 85%; both model eras present; deterministic rerun reproduced the same result hash). Missingness is fully attributed (311 unresolved archive requests, no other missing fields) and reconciled against the 2,516 registered requests. Article numbers, tables, figure, and claim ledger all match the analysis JSON. No design drift, leakage, or unsafe execution is evident in the supplied evidence.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "freshness",
      "evidence": "freshness_requirement.expected_season = 2025 while analysis.data_through = 2024; the article discloses the 2025 season is not yet scored and the minimum_season of 2024 is met under latest_completed_season mode.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the explicit season-coverage callout in the article and refresh the scorecard once the 2025 season completes."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "reproducibility",
      "evidence": "The bundle asserts a deterministic rerun with identical result hash and lists generated/analysis.py and reproducibility.json hashes, but no explicit RNG seed value is surfaced in the evidence itself.",
      "recommendation": "Record the bootstrap seed in reproducibility.json so the deterministic claim is independently checkable."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "missingness",
      "evidence": "311 of 2,516 registered archive requests (12.4%) are excluded as unresolved; coverage is 87.6% with stadium_coverage = 1.0, and the limitation is disclosed.",
      "recommendation": "If unresolved requests cluster by stadium, season, or model era, disclose that clustering; otherwise the current disclosure is adequate."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "data/forecast/evaluation-run.json",
    "data/forecast/registration.json",
    "data/forecast/reproducibility.json",
    "data/forecast/scorecard.json",
    "data/observed/coverage.csv",
    "data/observed/evaluation-run.json",
    "data/observed/gates.json",
    "data/observed/registration.json",
    "data/observed/reproducibility.json",
    "data/observed/results.json",
    "data/observed/source-manifest.json",
    "data/observed/station-agreement.json",
    "data/observed/study-decisions.json",
    "figures/weather-forecast-skill.png",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "research-proposal.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T15:34:03.438038+00:00"
}