{
  "series_id": "weather-model-impact",
  "run_id": "2026-09-03T172306Z-weather-model-impact-gh33784087870",
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-model-overall-error",
      "text": "The cutoff-safe weather challenger changed held-out weekly PPR MAE by +0.568% versus the identical champion, with a 95% game-cluster bootstrap interval from +0.328% to +0.810%.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#overall_improvement_pct",
        "data/model/scorecard.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-model-windows",
      "text": "The weather challenger beat the champion in 6 of 6 locked future-season evaluation windows.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#winning_windows",
        "data/model/champion-decision.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-model-position-stability",
      "text": "The largest position-level MAE regression was +0.239%.",
      "kind": "numeric",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#maximum_position_regression_pct",
        "data/model/champion-decision.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-model-decision",
      "text": "Every locked model gate passed, so weather entered the active weekly projection champion.",
      "kind": "interpretation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "analysis.json#model_gates",
        "data/model/champion-decision.json"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "weather-model-scope",
      "text": "This test estimates average weekly projection error for eligible historical player-weeks; it does not prove that weather improves every player decision.",
      "kind": "limitation",
      "evidence_paths": [
        "research-registration.json#estimand"
      ],
      "source_urls": [
        "https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-hrrr-pds/",
        "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data"
      ],
      "status": "supported"
    }
  ]
}