{
  "series_id": "weather-model-impact",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "question": "Does adding cutoff-safe six-hour stadium weather improve held-out weekly fantasy football projection accuracy versus the existing model?",
  "hypothesis": "Cutoff-safe six-hour stadium weather forecasts reduce held-out weekly fantasy projection error beyond the otherwise identical champion.",
  "estimand": "Percent change in held-out player-week mean absolute error for a weather-augmented ridge challenger versus the active weekly champion.",
  "population": "NFL player-weeks in six rolling future-season windows with eligible six-hour stadium weather forecasts",
  "outcomes": [
    "weekly PPR mean absolute error",
    "80% interval coverage"
  ],
  "features": [
    "pregame air temperature",
    "pregame wind",
    "pregame precipitation probability",
    "wind-by-precipitation interaction"
  ],
  "temporal_split": "Each season is predicted only from earlier seasons, and every weather object was available before its six-hour kickoff cutoff.",
  "baselines": [
    "the active weekly projection champion on the identical player-weeks"
  ],
  "metrics": [
    "overall MAE improvement",
    "winning future-season windows",
    "maximum positional regression",
    "80% interval coverage"
  ],
  "uncertainty": "4,000-draw deterministic cluster bootstrap resampling NFL games; all player-weeks from a sampled game move together",
  "sensitivities": [
    "each held-out season reported separately",
    "QB, RB, WR, and TE error reported separately",
    "weather-missing games removed from both models"
  ],
  "withhold_if": [
    "forecast readiness is incomplete",
    "leakage, missingness, reproducibility, or cost integrity fails",
    "the champion decision and evaluation status disagree",
    "game-cluster uncertainty is absent"
  ],
  "locked_at": "2026-09-02T19:45:34.235968+00:00"
}