{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis matches the locked registration: the estimand (percent change in held-out player-week MAE for a weather-augmented challenger versus the active champion), population (NFL player-weeks in six rolling future-season windows with cutoff-safe forecasts), features, metrics, sensitivity analyses, and game-cluster bootstrap uncertainty all align with the preregistration. All required artifacts are present with hashes (analysis, article, claim ledger, registration, scorecard, champion decision, figure, provenance), all locked model gates passed, and the champion/challenger denominators are identical (20,700 rows, zero excluded). The article's numbers reconcile with the analysis JSON (0.568% improvement, CI +0.328% to +0.810%, 6/6 windows, QB -1.12%, WR -1.09%, RB +0.24% regression), and predictive claims are clearly separated from causal claims via the 'Where the evidence stops' callout and limitations. No material departure from the locked registration and no missing required artifact.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "registration_match",
      "evidence": "locked_registration.estimand, features, metrics, sensitivities, and uncertainty method all correspond to analysis.json fields and article methods; mechanical_checks.registration_locked is true.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "artifact_completeness",
      "evidence": "artifact_hashes includes analysis.json, article.md, claim-ledger.json, research-registration.json, scorecard.json, champion-decision.json, figure PNG, and provenance.json; all claim_ledger entries are marked supported with evidence paths.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "claim_data_consistency",
      "evidence": "Article headline (0.568%, CI +0.328% to +0.810%), season comparisons (2019 gap 0.067; 2024 gap 0.003), and position table values match analysis.json and deterministic_comparison_facts exactly.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "predictive_vs_causal_separation",
      "evidence": "Article callout and limitations explicitly state results are population-level projection-error estimates, not evidence that weather causes specific player outcomes or improves every individual decision.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "freshness",
      "evidence": "freshness_requirement.expected_season is 2025 but data runs through 2024; the minimum_season of 2024 is satisfied, so this is a disclosed scope limitation rather than a blocker.",
      "recommendation": "Consider noting in the article that the 2025 season was not yet included at publication time."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "research-registration.json",
    "data/model/scorecard.json",
    "data/model/champion-decision.json",
    "figures/weekly-weather-projection-error.png",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "search-demand-brief.json"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T17:23:28.035678+00:00"
}