{
  "estimand": "Stadium-level field goals made above a leave-one-season-out, distance-adjusted expectation (adjusted accuracy residual), ranked with shrinkage and uncertainty.",
  "question": "After accounting for kick distance and season, which NFL stadiums have produced the largest positive and negative field-goal accuracy residuals since 2018?",
  "population": "NFL regular-season field-goal attempts, 2018 through the latest completed season (2025); one kick is the unit, game_id retained for clustering.",
  "seasons": [
    2018,
    2019,
    2020,
    2021,
    2022,
    2023,
    2024,
    2025
  ],
  "latest_completed_season": 2025,
  "n_kicks_analyzed": 8241,
  "league_make_rate": 0.8460138332726611,
  "distance_model": {
    "bin_edges": [
      0,
      20,
      30,
      35,
      40,
      45,
      50,
      55,
      61,
      100
    ],
    "min_bin_kicks": 20,
    "sparse_bin_merges": 0,
    "empty_bin_fallback_uses": 0
  },
  "shrinkage": {
    "rule": "shrunk = residual_per_attempt * attempts / (attempts + 100)",
    "k": 100.0
  },
  "loso_folds": [
    {
      "season": 2018,
      "held_out_kicks": 946,
      "training_kicks": 7295
    },
    {
      "season": 2019,
      "held_out_kicks": 983,
      "training_kicks": 7258
    },
    {
      "season": 2020,
      "held_out_kicks": 960,
      "training_kicks": 7281
    },
    {
      "season": 2021,
      "held_out_kicks": 1027,
      "training_kicks": 7214
    },
    {
      "season": 2022,
      "held_out_kicks": 1062,
      "training_kicks": 7179
    },
    {
      "season": 2023,
      "held_out_kicks": 1060,
      "training_kicks": 7181
    },
    {
      "season": 2024,
      "held_out_kicks": 1115,
      "training_kicks": 7126
    },
    {
      "season": 2025,
      "held_out_kicks": 1088,
      "training_kicks": 7153
    }
  ],
  "results": [
    {
      "stadium": "Allegiant Stadium",
      "games": 51,
      "attempts": 214,
      "makes": 193,
      "make_pct": 0.9018691588785047,
      "residual_total": 14.129796355180954,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.06602708577187362,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.044999351449620875,
      "bootstrap_se": 0.020955357245635763,
      "ci95_low": 0.003926851248174781,
      "ci95_high": 0.08607185165106697,
      "p_raw": 0.031762144164143497,
      "holm_p": 0.8575778924318744,
      "significant": false,
      "eligible": true
    },
    {
      "stadium": "AT&T Stadium",
      "games": 66,
      "attempts": 272,
      "makes": 242,
      "make_pct": 0.8897058823529411,
      "residual_total": 14.781558554040329,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.05434396527220709,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.039735372457097656,
      "bootstrap_se": 0.021527026486735473,
      "ci95_low": -0.0024575994569038667,
      "ci95_high": 0.08192834437109918,
      "p_raw": 0.06491594075960407,
      "holm_p": 1.0,
      "significant": false,
      "eligible": true
    },
    {
      "stadium": "SoFi Stadium",
      "games": 101,
      "attempts": 407,
      "makes": 360,
      "make_pct": 0.8845208845208845,
      "residual_total": 17.034034955054278,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.0418526657372341,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.03359770208097491,
      "bootstrap_se": 0.014338503415006518,
      "ci95_low": 0.005494235387562132,
      "ci95_high": 0.06170116877438768,
      "p_raw": 0.01912012879169101,
      "holm_p": 0.5353636061673483,
      "significant": false,
      "eligible": true
    },
    {
      "stadium": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium",
      "games": 65,
      "attempts": 301,
      "makes": 265,
      "make_pct": 0.8803986710963455,
      "residual_total": 13.36222759955074,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.044392782722759934,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.033322263340525536,
      "bootstrap_se": 0.015965646894729225,
      "ci95_low": 0.002029595426856254,
      "ci95_high": 0.06461493125419482,
      "p_raw": 0.03687704864524086,
      "holm_p": 0.9219262161310215,
      "significant": false,
      "eligible": true
    },
    {
      "stadium": "Nissan Stadium",
      "games": 66,
      "attempts": 231,
      "makes": 204,
      "make_pct": 0.8831168831168831,
      "residual_total": 6.938046024464127,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.030034831274736478,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.020960864122248114,
      "bootstrap_se": 0.023660008309786228,
      "ci95_low": -0.025412752164932894,
      "ci95_high": 0.06733448040942912,
      "p_raw": 0.3756608757510581,
      "holm_p": 1.0,
      "significant": false,
      "eligible": true
    },
    {
      "stadium": "TIAA Bank Stadium",
      "games": 62,
      "attempts": 243,
      "makes": 214,
      "make_pct": 0.8806584362139918,
      "residual_total": 6.807779062768686,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.02801555169863657,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.019847752369588006,
      "bootstrap_se": 0.016332233328288676,
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      "ci95_high": 0.05185892969303381,
      "p_raw": 0.2242706197919994,
      "holm_p": 1.0,
      "significant": false,
      "eligible": true
    },
    {
      "stadium": "Tottenham Stadium",
      "games": 10,
      "attempts": 44,
      "makes": 39,
      "make_pct": 0.8863636363636364,
      "residual_total": 2.58820598845825,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.05882286337405113,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.017973652697626737,
      "bootstrap_se": 0.04239444794907216,
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      "holm_p": null,
      "significant": false,
      "eligible": false
    },
    {
      "stadium": "NRG Stadium",
      "games": 67,
      "attempts": 270,
      "makes": 233,
      "make_pct": 0.8629629629629629,
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      "significant": false,
      "eligible": true
    },
    {
      "stadium": "Heinz Field",
      "games": 33,
      "attempts": 118,
      "makes": 104,
      "make_pct": 0.8813559322033898,
      "residual_total": 3.5932472943999167,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.030451248257626413,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.01648278575412806,
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      "significant": false,
      "eligible": false
    },
    {
      "stadium": "U.S. Bank Stadium",
      "games": 65,
      "attempts": 285,
      "makes": 244,
      "make_pct": 0.856140350877193,
      "residual_total": 4.921764895145763,
      "residual_per_attempt": 0.01726935050928338,
      "shrunk_residual": 0.012783804922456527,
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      "eligible": true
    },
    {
      "stadium": "Paycor Stadium",
      "games": 33,
      "attempts": 117,
      "makes": 101,
      "make_pct": 0.8632478632478633,
      "residual_total": 2.7127419976419733,
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    {
      "stadium": "Acrisure Stadium",
      "games": 34,
      "attempts": 149,
      "makes": 127,
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      "stadium": "Bank of America Stadium",
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    {
      "stadium": "State Farm Stadium",
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      "attempts": 270,
      "makes": 228,
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      "makes": 227,
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      "stadium": "Levi's Stadium",
      "games": 63,
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      "makes": 186,
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      "stadium": "GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium",
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      "attempts": 32,
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      "stadium": "Lumen Field",
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      "stadium": "Lambeau Field",
      "games": 65,
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      "makes": 188,
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      "stadium": "Ford Field",
      "games": 67,
      "attempts": 243,
      "makes": 197,
      "make_pct": 0.8106995884773662,
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      "ci95_low": -0.06519734631525959,
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      "stadium": "FedExField",
      "games": 66,
      "attempts": 247,
      "makes": 202,
      "make_pct": 0.8178137651821862,
      "residual_total": -6.143370205073715,
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      "stadium": "Paul Brown Stadium",
      "games": 33,
      "attempts": 133,
      "makes": 111,
      "make_pct": 0.8345864661654135,
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      "stadium": "Arrowhead Stadium",
      "games": 24,
      "attempts": 77,
      "makes": 62,
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      "bootstrap_se": 0.035275098199551436,
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      "stadium": "CenturyLink Field",
      "games": 20,
      "attempts": 69,
      "makes": 55,
      "make_pct": 0.7971014492753623,
      "residual_total": -3.4228836804556133,
      "residual_per_attempt": -0.04960700986167556,
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      "bootstrap_se": 0.0436929537730491,
      "ci95_low": -0.10589193898367098,
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      "stadium": "Soldier Field",
      "games": 65,
      "attempts": 238,
      "makes": 199,
      "make_pct": 0.8361344537815126,
      "residual_total": -7.104761453702105,
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      "stadium": "StubHub Center",
      "games": 14,
      "attempts": 64,
      "makes": 50,
      "make_pct": 0.78125,
      "residual_total": -3.5678025403446623,
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      "stadium": "Ring Central Coliseum",
      "games": 7,
      "attempts": 23,
      "makes": 17,
      "make_pct": 0.7391304347826086,
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    },
    {
      "stadium": "Raymond James Stadium",
      "games": 64,
      "attempts": 255,
      "makes": 205,
      "make_pct": 0.803921568627451,
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      "stadium": "Gillette Stadium",
      "games": 66,
      "attempts": 245,
      "makes": 195,
      "make_pct": 0.7959183673469388,
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    {
      "stadium": "FirstEnergy Stadium",
      "games": 67,
      "attempts": 226,
      "makes": 175,
      "make_pct": 0.7743362831858407,
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  ],
  "sensitivity": [
    {
      "name": "threshold_60",
      "eligible_stadiums": 28,
      "spearman_vs_primary": 0.9999999999999998,
      "top5_overlap": 5,
      "bottom5_overlap": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "threshold_120",
      "eligible_stadiums": 28,
      "spearman_vs_primary": 0.9999999999999998,
      "top5_overlap": 5,
      "bottom5_overlap": 5
    },
    {
      "name": "alternate_distance_bins",
      "eligible_stadiums": 28,
      "spearman_vs_primary": 0.996168582375479,
      "top5_overlap": 5,
      "bottom5_overlap": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "window_2021_plus",
      "eligible_stadiums": 28,
      "spearman_vs_primary": 0.8440065681444991,
      "top5_overlap": 4,
      "bottom5_overlap": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "shrinkage_on_vs_off",
      "eligible_stadiums": 28,
      "spearman_vs_primary": 0.9983579638752054,
      "top5_overlap": 5,
      "bottom5_overlap": 5
    }
  ],
  "research_audit": {
    "temporal_validation": {
      "name": "Leave-one-season-out temporal validation",
      "passed": true,
      "details": "LOSO held out each season with data ([2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025]); every fold trained only on other completed seasons; partial 2026 season excluded; 8241 kicks analyzed."
    },
    "baseline_checks": [
      {
        "name": "Distance-only league make curve",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "League-wide distance-only make-probability curve fit per LOSO fold with 9 bins; 0 sparse-bin merges at min 20 kicks; 0 empty-bin fallback uses (training pooled rate)."
      },
      {
        "name": "Raw per-stadium make percentage reported",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Raw make percentage reported for every stadium for transparency only; never used for ranking."
      },
      {
        "name": "Adjustment model excludes stadium terms",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "The expectation model uses only kick_distance bins and training-season outcomes; no stadium term enters."
      }
    ],
    "uncertainty": {
      "name": "Game-clustered bootstrap with Holm correction",
      "passed": true,
      "details": "200 bootstrap resamples of game_id clusters (seed 42); 95% intervals and Holm-adjusted p-values across 28 eligible stadiums; every displayed stadium has an interval."
    },
    "missingness": {
      "input_rows": 8241,
      "analyzed_rows": 8241,
      "excluded_rows": 0,
      "reconciled": true,
      "missing_by_field": {
        "kick_distance": 0,
        "field_goal_result": 0,
        "game_stadium": 0
      }
    },
    "sensitivity_checks": [
      {
        "name": "Eligibility threshold 60 attempts",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Threshold 60: 28 eligible stadiums; rank stability versus the primary 80-attempt ranking reported (Spearman 1.0, top-5 overlap 5, bottom-5 overlap 5)."
      },
      {
        "name": "Eligibility threshold 120 attempts",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Threshold 120: 28 eligible stadiums; rank stability versus the primary 80-attempt ranking reported (Spearman 1.0, top-5 overlap 5, bottom-5 overlap 5)."
      },
      {
        "name": "Alternate distance binning scheme",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Alternate bins (7 bins, 8 merges): 28 eligible stadiums; rank stability versus the primary ranking reported (Spearman 0.996, top-5 overlap 5, bottom-5 overlap 4)."
      },
      {
        "name": "Restricted 2021-through-2025 window",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "2021-through-2025 window: 28 eligible stadiums; rank stability versus the primary 2018-2025 ranking reported (Spearman 0.844, top-5 overlap 4, bottom-5 overlap 3)."
      },
      {
        "name": "Empirical-Bayes shrinkage on versus off",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Shrunk ranking versus unshrunk residual per attempt across 28 eligible stadiums: Spearman 0.998, top-5 overlap 5, bottom-5 overlap 5; divergences flag sample-size-driven rankings."
      }
    ],
    "leakage_checks": [
      {
        "name": "No stadium or post-kick features in expectation",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Expected make probability depends only on kick_distance bin and training-season outcomes; stadium identity never enters the model."
      },
      {
        "name": "Held-out season fully excluded from training",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Each LOSO fold's training set excludes the held-out season; verified from per-fold training kick counts."
      },
      {
        "name": "No current-partial-season data used",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Only seasons 2018-2025 are read; the partial 2026 season is excluded from kicks and game counts."
      }
    ],
    "withholding_checks": [
      {
        "name": "Latest completed season available",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Season 2025 regular-season field-goal kicks present: True; partial 2026 season never treated as complete."
      },
      {
        "name": "LOSO expectation computable for eligible stadiums",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "All 28 eligible stadiums have computable LOSO expectations; sparse distance groups handled by documented adjacent-bin merge fallback (0 merges)."
      },
      {
        "name": "Uncertainty clusterable by game_id",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Every analyzed kick carries a game_id and every stadium has at least one game, enabling game-clustered bootstrap."
      },
      {
        "name": "Holm correction across eligible family",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Holm correction applied across the full eligible-stadium family of 28 stadiums."
      },
      {
        "name": "Freshness contract and registered sources",
        "passed": true,
        "details": "Only the registered named input files (games.csv, play_by_play_2018-2025.csv.gz) were read; seasons restricted to 2018-2025."
      }
    ]
  }
}