{ "series_id": "weather-stadium-kicking", "run_id": "2026-09-03T214252Z-weather-stadium-kicking-gh33809269583", "claims": [ { "claim_id": "C1", "text": "The analysis covers 8,241 NFL regular-season field-goal attempts from the 2018 season through the latest completed season (2025), with one kick as the unit and game_id retained for clustering; the partial 2026 season is excluded.", "kind": "source", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#population", "analysis.json#n_kicks_analyzed", "analysis.json#latest_completed_season" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C2", "text": "The league-wide make rate across the analyzed kicks was 0.846 (84.6%).", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#league_make_rate" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C3", "text": "Among the 28 eligible stadiums (at least 80 attempts and 40 games, 2018-2025), the largest positive adjusted accuracy residuals per attempt were Allegiant Stadium (+0.0660, 95% CI 0.0039 to 0.0861, 214 attempts), AT&T Stadium (+0.0543, 95% CI -0.0025 to 0.0819, 272 attempts), SoFi Stadium (+0.0419, 95% CI 0.0055 to 0.0617, 407 attempts), and Mercedes-Benz Stadium (+0.0444, 95% CI 0.0020 to 0.0646, 301 attempts).", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#results[stadium=Allegiant Stadium]", "analysis.json#results[stadium=AT&T Stadium]", "analysis.json#results[stadium=SoFi Stadium]", "analysis.json#results[stadium=Mercedes-Benz Stadium]" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C4", "text": "Among the 28 eligible stadiums, the largest negative adjusted accuracy residuals per attempt were FirstEnergy Stadium (-0.0675, 95% CI -0.1002 to 0.0066, 226 attempts), Gillette Stadium (-0.0617, 95% CI -0.0885 to 0.0008, 245 attempts), and Raymond James Stadium (-0.0544, 95% CI -0.0753 to -0.0029, 255 attempts).", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#results[stadium=FirstEnergy Stadium]", "analysis.json#results[stadium=Gillette Stadium]", "analysis.json#results[stadium=Raymond James Stadium]" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C5", "text": "Per the deterministic exclusion summary, among eligible stadiums exactly three have 95% intervals excluding zero on the positive side (Allegiant Stadium, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, SoFi Stadium) and exactly one has an interval excluding zero on the negative side (Raymond James Stadium).", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "deterministic-numeric-facts.json#exclusion_summary.eligible.positive", "deterministic-numeric-facts.json#exclusion_summary.eligible.negative" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C6", "text": "Across all 45 stadiums analyzed, three intervals exclude zero on the positive side (Allegiant Stadium, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, SoFi Stadium) and three exclude zero on the negative side (Arena Corinthians, Deutsche Bank Park, Raymond James Stadium).", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "deterministic-numeric-facts.json#exclusion_summary.all.positive", "deterministic-numeric-facts.json#exclusion_summary.all.negative" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C7", "text": "No eligible stadium is flagged significant under the Holm correction across the 28-stadium family; the smallest Holm-adjusted p-value is 0.5354 (SoFi Stadium).", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#results[stadium=SoFi Stadium].holm_p", "analysis.json#research_audit.withholding_checks[4]" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C8", "text": "Rank stability of the primary ranking is high under eligibility thresholds of 60 and 120 attempts (Spearman 1.0 each, top-5 and bottom-5 overlap 5), under alternate distance binning (Spearman 0.996, top-5 overlap 5, bottom-5 overlap 4), and with versus without shrinkage (Spearman 0.998, top-5 and bottom-5 overlap 5); it is weaker under the restricted 2021-2025 window (Spearman 0.844, top-5 overlap 4, bottom-5 overlap 3).", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#sensitivity" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C9", "text": "Leave-one-season-out temporal validation was performed over seasons 2018-2025, with held-out kick counts ranging from 946 (2018) to 1,115 (2024) and training kick counts from 7,126 to 7,295 per fold.", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#loso_folds" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C10", "text": "Missingness was fully reconciled: 8,241 input rows, 8,241 analyzed rows, 0 excluded rows, and 0 missing values in field_goal_result, game_stadium, or kick_distance.", "kind": "numeric", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#research_audit.missingness" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C11", "text": "The expectation model uses only kick-distance bins (9 bins, minimum 20 kicks per bin, 0 sparse-bin merges, 0 empty-bin fallback uses) and training-season outcomes; stadium identity never enters the model, and raw per-stadium make percentage is reported for transparency only and never used for ranking.", "kind": "source", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#distance_model", "analysis.json#research_audit.baseline_checks", "analysis.json#research_audit.leakage_checks" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C12", "text": "Uncertainty was estimated via 200 game-clustered bootstrap resamples (seed 42) with 95% intervals and Holm-adjusted p-values across the 28 eligible stadiums.", "kind": "source", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#research_audit.uncertainty" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C13", "text": "Shrinkage applied the pre-locked rule shrunk = residual_per_attempt * attempts / (attempts + 100) with k = 100.", "kind": "source", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#shrinkage" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C14", "text": "All input data are nflverse release assets (games.csv and play_by_play_2018-2025.csv.gz) under CC BY 4.0, downloaded fresh for this run with SHA-256 hashes recorded in the run manifest, and all source records had rights status approved at run time.", "kind": "source", "evidence_paths": [ "provenance.json#[source_name=nflverse NFL schedules]", "provenance.json#[source_name=nflverse 2025 play-by-play]" ], "source_urls": [ "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/schedules/games.csv", "https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/download/pbp/play_by_play_2025.csv.gz" ], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C15", "text": "A publication figure (figures/stadium-residuals-figure.png, 1200x1260, SHA-256 87fec56dfb04d40dfb682b983e848a55bddd8a1c58693e84db2be2e7ea311638) shows shrunk adjusted makes above distance-expected per attempt with game-clustered bootstrap 95% intervals for the 2018-2025 regular seasons.", "kind": "source", "evidence_paths": [ "publication-assets.json#figures[0]" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C16", "text": "Interpretation: after adjusting for kick distance and season via leave-one-season-out expectations, Allegiant Stadium shows the largest positive adjusted field-goal residual and FirstEnergy Stadium the largest negative residual among eligible stadiums, but because no stadium survives Holm correction across the 28-stadium family, these differences should be described as suggestive rather than statistically confirmed stadium effects.", "kind": "interpretation", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#results[stadium=Allegiant Stadium]", "analysis.json#results[stadium=FirstEnergy Stadium]", "analysis.json#research_audit.withholding_checks[3]" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C17", "text": "Limitation: the ranking is sensitive to the analysis window; restricting to 2021-2025 lowers rank stability to Spearman 0.844 with only 4/5 top-5 and 3/5 bottom-5 overlap, so the 2018-2025 ordering may not reflect the most recent seasons alone.", "kind": "limitation", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#sensitivity[name=window_2021_plus]" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C18", "text": "Limitation: 17 of the 45 analyzed stadiums are ineligible for the primary ranking (fewer than 80 attempts or 40 games), including several with extreme point estimates (e.g., Deutsche Bank Park, -0.221 per attempt on 5 attempts; Arena Corinthians, -0.105 on 6 attempts) whose intervals are degenerate or extremely wide and cannot support inference.", "kind": "limitation", "evidence_paths": [ "analysis.json#results[stadium=Deutsche Bank Park]", "analysis.json#results[stadium=Arena Corinthians]" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" }, { "claim_id": "C19", "text": "Limitation: the adjustment model controls only for kick distance and season; registered contextual features (roof, surface, temperature, wind) were descriptive only and not part of the primary adjustment, so residual stadium effects may partly reflect unmodeled weather or venue characteristics.", "kind": "limitation", "evidence_paths": [ "research-registration.json#features" ], "source_urls": [], "status": "supported" } ] }