{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed analysis and article match the locked preregistration. The estimand (per-stadium adjusted accuracy residual vs. a leave-one-season-out, distance-and-season expectation), population (NFL regular-season FG attempts 2018-2025, partial 2026 excluded), eligibility rule (80 attempts / 40 games), shrinkage rule (k=100), uncertainty design (200 game-clustered bootstrap resamples, seed 42, Holm correction across 28 eligible stadiums), and all five registered sensitivity analyses are present and consistent between the registration, analysis, and article. All required artifacts exist with matching hashes across both determinism runs. Interval-exclusion claims in the article (Allegiant, Mercedes-Benz, SoFi positive; Raymond James negative among eligible stadiums) match the deterministic numeric facts exactly, and the article correctly reports that no stadium survives Holm correction (smallest Holm p = 0.535, SoFi). Predictive/fantasy framing is appropriately hedged and separated from causal claims, with the unmodeled-weather caveat disclosed. No material departure from the registration and no missing artifacts were found.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "registration_match",
      "evidence": "Locked registration's estimand, population, LOSO temporal split, eligibility thresholds, shrinkage rule, uncertainty plan, and sensitivity list all appear in the executed analysis (analysis.json) and are accurately described in the article's methods and caveats.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "interval_claims_vs_deterministic_facts",
      "evidence": "Article claims exactly three eligible positive excluders (Allegiant, Mercedes-Benz, SoFi) and one eligible negative excluder (Raymond James); deterministic_numeric_facts.exclusion_summary.eligible lists exactly these stadiums. Holm claims (none significant; smallest 0.535 SoFi) match analysis results.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "disclosed_scope_limitation",
      "evidence": "Rank stability weakens in the 2021-2025 window (Spearman 0.844, 4/5 top-5 and 3/5 bottom-5 overlap), and 17 of 45 stadiums are ineligible with extreme uninferable estimates (e.g., Deutsche Bank Park -0.221 on 5 attempts). Both limitations are disclosed in the article's limitations and caveats sections.",
      "recommendation": "No change required; the disclosures are adequate."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "predictive_vs_causal_separation",
      "evidence": "The fantasy-advice section frames stadium residuals as a soft tiebreaker, notes no stadium survives Holm correction, and explicitly cautions that residuals may reflect unmodeled weather or venue characteristics rather than the stadium itself.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "artifact_completeness",
      "evidence": "Figure, both tables, publication preview, claim ledger (19 supported claims with evidence paths), provenance with approved rights and SHA-256 hashes, and identical hashes across determinism runs 1 and 2 are all present.",
      "recommendation": "None required."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "research-registration.json (locked_registration)",
    "analysis.json",
    "deterministic-numeric-facts.json",
    "article-draft.json / article.md",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "provenance.json",
    "publication-assets.json (figure and tables)",
    "determinism-run-1 and determinism-run-2 hashes",
    "mechanical_checks"
  ],
  "model": "z-ai/glm-5.3",
  "created_at": "2026-09-03T21:44:32.002864+00:00"
}