{
  "role": "researcher",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The executed study, required publication artifacts, and article conform to the locked preregistration. The article accurately distinguishes the registered at-least-four-game hypothesis from the separate two-game editorial-threshold result, limits claims to historical prediction, and avoids causal or player-specific conclusions. Source credits are complete and consistent with the approved provenance. Disclosed dependence and scope limitations remain non-blocking warnings.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Preregistration and execution concordance",
      "evidence": "The execution retains the registered NFL WR population, rolling 2019-2025 evaluation, disjoint 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 6-, and 8-game observation windows, next-four-team-game target-share outcome, registered baselines, MAE estimand, paired improvement, and 1,000-replicate player-cluster bootstrap with seed 271828. The registered hypothesis is classified as supported at 4, 6, and 8 games and unsupported at 1, 2, and 3 under its explicit at-least-four-game restriction.",
      "recommendation": "Publish without changing the registered design or hypothesis interpretation."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Article result fidelity",
      "evidence": "The article's reported sample sizes, MAEs, comparator values, and paired-improvement intervals agree with the accepted analysis and publication table. Its statements that the one-game improvement interval excludes zero negatively and the two-game interval excludes zero positively agree with deterministic_numeric_facts.",
      "recommendation": "Retain the current numerical wording and subtraction direction."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Primary hypothesis versus editorial sensitivity",
      "evidence": "The article identifies two games as the shortest tested window meeting the registered editorial point-estimate criteria, while explicitly stating that the preregistered hypothesis applied only to windows of at least four games and that four games was its shortest supported window. It further says this design restriction is not evidence of a separate empirical cutoff.",
      "recommendation": "Preserve this explicit distinction in all headlines, summaries, and derivative distribution copy."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Predictive and causal claim separation",
      "evidence": "The article repeatedly describes held-out forecast error and explicitly rejects interpreting the connected curve as the causal effect of adding games. It notes that forecast origins, outcome blocks, and eligible cohorts differ and does not present the results as player-specific start, sit, trade, or waiver commands.",
      "recommendation": "Maintain the historical predictive framing and causal disclaimers."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Dependence and interval scope limitation",
      "evidence": "The registered player-cluster bootstrap does not separately account for dependence among receivers sharing team-game context. The article, figure caption, table caption, and limitations disclose this and clarify that intervals concern pointwise average error or paired average improvement rather than individual-player predictions or simultaneous inference.",
      "recommendation": "Retain these disclosures and avoid stronger uncertainty or individual-player claims."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Required artifacts and reproducibility",
      "evidence": "The expected analysis, publication manifest, six-window CSV table, and 1680-by-1080 PNG figure are present. Reported hashes match across the publication manifest, artifact inventory, and two deterministic runs, and the analysis reports approved complete inputs with verified hashes and no publication-withholding reasons.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the reviewed artifact set linked to the published Research File."
    },
    {
      "severity": "note",
      "check": "Public source credits and rights",
      "evidence": "Public credits are supplied for the 2018-2025 nflverse weekly player-statistics files and the nflverse schedule file. Each includes the nflverse-contributor attribution, CC BY 4.0 license, source URL, and the note concerning underlying NFL data owners' terms, consistent with the approved provenance records.",
      "recommendation": "Publish the supplied credits in the expandable Research File as configured."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "locked research registration",
    "analysis.json",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "generated/test_analysis.py",
    "deterministic-numeric-facts.json",
    "claim-ledger.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "figures/wr-target-share-error-curve-figure.png",
    "tables/wr-target-share-main-results-table.csv",
    "input manifest and provenance records",
    "public_source_credits"
  ],
  "model": "openai/gpt-5.6-sol",
  "created_at": "2026-09-06T15:28:52.658896+00:00"
}