{
  "role": "statistician",
  "decision": "pass",
  "summary": "The article\u2019s central claims match the locked historical MAE estimand and supplied results. Outcome construction, temporal separation, baselines, row reconciliation, sensitivities, interval signs, and public-source credits are adequately supported. Publication may proceed with the existing visible warnings preserved.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Dependence and interval coverage",
      "evidence": "The registered bootstrap clusters by player, but receivers can share team-game contexts. The analysis expressly states that player-only clustering does not separately account for this dependence, so reported intervals may understate uncertainty if shared-context correlation is material. This warning appears in the article, figure, table, and limitations.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the shared team-game dependence warning visible and do not describe the pointwise intervals as fully accounting for all dependence."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Multiplicity and selected shortest window",
      "evidence": "Six windows were evaluated, and the two-game result is highlighted because it was the shortest tested window meeting editorial point-estimate criteria. The intervals are pointwise rather than simultaneous, so exclusion of zero at the selected window is not familywise-adjusted evidence. The article already identifies the intervals as nonsimultaneous and distinguishes the editorial criterion from the preregistered hypothesis.",
      "recommendation": "Retain the visible nonsimultaneous-interval and editorial-threshold caveats; avoid presenting two games as a multiplicity-adjusted or universal cutoff."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Changing cohorts and forecast origins",
      "evidence": "Eligible counts rise from 1,013 at one game to 1,476 at eight games, while each window also uses a different forecast origin and following four-game outcome block. Consequently, cross-window changes do not estimate the causal effect of adding games for a fixed receiver cohort. The article explicitly warns about this selection and comparability limitation.",
      "recommendation": "Preserve the visible warning that the connected curve is not a within-player causal trajectory or an isolated effect of adding games."
    },
    {
      "severity": "warning",
      "check": "Historical population scope",
      "evidence": "Eligibility requires a recorded WR row within the observation window, and the evaluation covers pooled 2019-2025 seasons. It therefore does not represent every rostered or preseason-relevant receiver and does not validate 2026 player recommendations. These limitations are disclosed without extending the claim beyond the historical estimand.",
      "recommendation": "Keep the observation-window eligibility and 2019-2025 historical-scope warnings visible in the published article and Research File."
    }
  ],
  "artifacts_reviewed": [
    "analysis.json",
    "article-draft.json",
    "article.md",
    "research-registration.json",
    "deterministic-numeric-facts.json",
    "generated/analysis.py",
    "generated/test_analysis.py",
    "publication-assets.json",
    "tables/wr-target-share-main-results-table.csv",
    "figures/wr-target-share-error-curve-figure.png",
    "provenance.json",
    "public_source_credits",
    "claim-ledger.json"
  ],
  "model": "openai/gpt-5.6-sol",
  "created_at": "2026-09-06T15:29:17.281871+00:00"
}