Completed NFL seasons
Approved nflverse player statistics supply the historical training rows.
- Coverage
- Quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends
- Freshness
- Through the completed 2025 season
CURRENT PROJECTION ENGINE · V0.2.0
How our 2026 fantasy football rankings work.
Every active input flows into the season and weekly rankings below. The map changes when a tested model change earns promotion.
2026 inputs through Sep 8, 20260.8%lower error than prior-year points
3,009held-out player-seasons
3/5test seasons won
80.7%80% interval coverage
LIVE MODEL MAP · V0.2.0
Every active input, model, and output.
Follow a signal from source data to a ranked player list. Every active node links to its evidence.
- InputsCompleted NFL seasons
Approved nflverse player statistics supply the historical training rows.
- Inputs2026 team context
Current rosters, depth charts, draft capital, and schedules define the pool.
- Player signalPlayer age and prior-season availability
Age and games played describe career stage and recent availability.
- Player signalPrior fantasy production
Prior-season standard and PPR scoring provide a direct production anchor.
- Player signalPassing opportunity
Attempts, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions measure prior passing volume.
- Player signalRushing opportunity
Carries, yards, and touchdowns measure prior rushing volume and role.
- Player signalReceiving opportunity
Targets, catches, yards, touchdowns, and air yards measure receiving volume.
- Football contextCurrent role and availability
Roster status, depth rank, schedule, and rookie draft round adjust the forecast.
- ModelsPosition projection models
Separate regularized models forecast PPR points and games for each position.
- Projections2026 PPR projections
Point estimates, playing probabilities, and uncertainty ranges feed both horizons.
- Rank policyRank and tier policy
Value over replacement sets overall order; projection clustering creates tiers.
- Outputs2026 season rankings
Current rest-of-season player order, position ranks, tiers, and exportable values.
- OutputsWeek 1 rankings
Current weekly player order, position ranks, tiers, opponents, and exports.
- InputsCutoff-safe stadium weather
Frozen pregame forecasts supply only values available before the ranking lock.
- Football contextWeather team-environment adjustment
An additive position-specific adjustment that earned promotion in held-out tests.
2026 team context
Current rosters, depth charts, draft capital, and schedules define the pool.
- Coverage
- 502 active fantasy-relevant players
- Freshness
- Depth charts through Sep 8, 2026
Player age and prior-season availability
Age and games played describe career stage and recent availability.
- Coverage
- age, games
- Freshness
- Locked to the immediately prior completed season
Prior fantasy production
Prior-season standard and PPR scoring provide a direct production anchor.
- Coverage
- fantasy_points_ppr_pg, fantasy_points_pg
- Freshness
- Locked to the immediately prior completed season
Passing opportunity
Attempts, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions measure prior passing volume.
- Coverage
- attempts_pg, passing_yards_pg, passing_tds_pg, passing_interceptions_pg
- Freshness
- Locked to the immediately prior completed season
Rushing opportunity
Carries, yards, and touchdowns measure prior rushing volume and role.
- Coverage
- carries_pg, rushing_yards_pg, rushing_tds_pg
- Freshness
- Locked to the immediately prior completed season
Receiving opportunity
Targets, catches, yards, touchdowns, and air yards measure receiving volume.
- Coverage
- receptions_pg, targets_pg, receiving_yards_pg, receiving_tds_pg, receiving_air_yards_pg
- Freshness
- Locked to the immediately prior completed season
Current role and availability
Roster status, depth rank, schedule, and rookie draft round adjust the forecast.
- Coverage
- Active 2026 roster and Week 1 schedule
- Freshness
- Current through Sep 8, 2026
Position projection models
Separate regularized models forecast PPR points and games for each position.
0.8% betterMAE vs prior-season baseline
- Coverage
- QB, RB, WR, and TE next-season forecasts
- Freshness
- Refit whenever approved model inputs or the champion change
2026 PPR projections
Point estimates, playing probabilities, and uncertainty ranges feed both horizons.
- Coverage
- 502 players for season and Week 1
- Freshness
- Current through Sep 8, 2026
Rank and tier policy
Value over replacement sets overall order; projection clustering creates tiers.
- Coverage
- Overall and position-specific PPR views
- Freshness
- Applied with every projection refresh
2026 season rankings
Current rest-of-season player order, position ranks, tiers, and exportable values.
- Coverage
- 502 active players
- Freshness
- Current through Sep 8, 2026
Week 1 rankings
Current weekly player order, position ranks, tiers, opponents, and exports.
- Coverage
- 502 active players
- Freshness
- Current through Sep 8, 2026
Cutoff-safe stadium weather
Frozen pregame forecasts supply only values available before the ranking lock.
- Coverage
- 1 eligible games in this ranking window
- Freshness
- 2026-09-09T01:00:57.540693+00:00
Weather team-environment adjustment
An additive position-specific adjustment that earned promotion in held-out tests.
- Coverage
- 33 players adjusted in this snapshot
- Freshness
- 2026-09-09T01:00:57.540693+00:00
ROLLING BACKTEST
Five future seasons. No peeking.
Each season stayed hidden until the model was fit on earlier years. Results are compared with simply carrying forward the prior season's PPR points.
| Season | Players | Model MAE | Prior-year MAE | Improvement | 80% coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 602 | 42.65 | 42.86 | +0.5% | 78.6% |
| 2022 | 633 | 38.79 | 37.87 | -2.4% | 81.7% |
| 2023 | 608 | 38.67 | 38.56 | -0.3% | 83.2% |
| 2024 | 577 | 40.15 | 41.33 | +2.9% | 78.3% |
| 2025 | 589 | 36.68 | 38.07 | +3.6% | 81.7% |
Current champion: V0.2.0. Rolling-origin next-season forecasts. Every fold trains only on earlier target seasons. See the all-position weekly scorecard →
CURRENT OUTPUT
The model ends in usable rankings.
Current rosters and depth charts through Sep 8, 2026; completed 2025 statistics.
| Rank | Tier | Player | Pos. | Team | Expected PPR | Model range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Puka Nacua | WR1 | LA | 272.8 | 207.0–343.2 |
| 2 | 1 | Bijan Robinson | RB1 | ATL | 259.5 | 187.1–341.8 |
| 3 | 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR2 | SEA | 259.2 | 193.4–329.5 |
| 4 | 2 | De'Von Achane | RB2 | MIA | 234.6 | 162.2–316.9 |
| 5 | 2 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB3 | DET | 233.3 | 160.9–315.6 |
| 6 | 2 | Christian McCaffrey | RB4 | SF | 225.9 | 153.5–308.2 |
| 7 | 2 | Ja'Marr Chase | WR3 | CIN | 234.2 | 168.4–304.5 |
| 8 | 2 | Jonathan Taylor | RB5 | IND | 221.4 | 149.1–303.7 |
| 9 | 2 | Breece Hall | RB6 | NYJ | 220.9 | 148.5–303.2 |
| 10 | 3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR4 | DET | 223.3 | 157.5–293.7 |
| 11 | 3 | Trey McBride | TE1 | ARI | 205.7 | 161.5–254.8 |
| 12 | 3 | Jeremiyah Love | RB7 | ARI | 203.1 | 30.5–455.7 |
| 13 | 3 | Jadarian Price | RB8 | SEA | 203.1 | 30.5–455.7 |
| 14 | 3 | James Cook | RB9 | BUF | 202.8 | 130.4–285.1 |
| 15 | 4 | Chris Olave | WR5 | NO | 202.9 | 137.1–273.2 |
| 16 | 4 | Chase Brown | RB10 | CIN | 189.8 | 117.5–272.2 |
| 17 | 4 | George Pickens | WR6 | DAL | 201.0 | 137.8–268.7 |
| 18 | 4 | Ashton Jeanty | RB11 | LV | 189.3 | 116.9–271.6 |
| 19 | 4 | Drake London | WR7 | ATL | 192.6 | 126.8–262.9 |
| 20 | 4 | Kyren Williams | RB12 | LA | 178.8 | 106.5–261.1 |
| 21 | 4 | Rashee Rice | WR8 | KC | 188.0 | 122.2–258.3 |
| 22 | 4 | Javonte Williams | RB13 | DAL | 175.0 | 102.6–257.3 |
| 23 | 5 | CeeDee Lamb | WR9 | DAL | 182.7 | 116.9–253.0 |
| 24 | 5 | Omarion Hampton | RB14 | LAC | 169.2 | 96.8–251.5 |
| 25 | 5 | Zay Flowers | WR10 | BAL | 178.8 | 113.0–249.2 |
| 26 | 5 | Travis Etienne | RB15 | NO | 166.0 | 93.6–248.3 |
| 27 | 5 | Drake Maye | QB1 | NE | 257.2 | 153.9–373.7 |
| 28 | 5 | Carnell Tate | WR11 | TEN | 175.6 | 26.3–396.2 |
| 29 | 5 | D'Andre Swift | RB16 | CHI | 164.3 | 91.9–246.6 |
| 30 | 5 | Nico Collins | WR12 | HOU | 174.6 | 108.8–245.0 |
| 31 | 5 | Bucky Irving | RB17 | TB | 163.4 | 91.0–245.7 |
| 32 | 5 | Saquon Barkley | RB18 | PHI | 162.9 | 90.6–245.2 |
| 33 | 5 | Josh Allen | QB2 | BUF | 253.9 | 150.6–370.4 |
| 34 | 5 | Caleb Williams | QB3 | CHI | 252.6 | 149.3–369.1 |
| 35 | 5 | Quinshon Judkins | RB19 | CLE | 160.8 | 88.5–243.1 |
| 36 | 5 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR13 | CAR | 170.8 | 105.0–241.1 |
CURRENT BOUNDARY
What the model does not know yet.
- A commercially licensed injury or inactive feed
- Confirmed depth-chart changes after the source timestamp
- Betting markets, coaching, or news adjustments
- Opponent-strength adjustments in the current weekly baseline
New signals enter only after rights review and out-of-time evaluation. Passing challengers update this map and every ranking together. Research standards →