Research
Fantasy football studies, models, and tools.
finding · Sep 6, 2026 · 5 min read
How Many Games Until You Can Trust an NFL Wide Receiver's Target Share?
One game was too early. After two games, current target share predicted a wide receiver's next four games better than the historical baseline in our 2019-25 test.
Read the research →
finding · Sep 3, 2026 · 4 min read
Do NFL Kicker Fantasy Points Fall at 10, 12, or 15+ MPH Wind Through the 2024 NFL Season
Kicker scoring drops as soon as observed game wind passes 10 mph, and the damage grows with every threshold — but the evidence is retrospective, not a forecast.
Read the research →
comparison · Sep 3, 2026 · 3 min read
Does NFL Scoring Change With an Open vs. Closed Retractable Roof?
A same-stadium comparison of 333 retractable-roof games through 2025 finds no reliable scoring or passing shift when the roof is open — but kickers made field goals at a meaningfully higher clip.
Read the research →
comparison · Sep 3, 2026 · 4 min read
Do NFL Domes Produce Higher-Scoring Games After Accounting for the Teams?
Dome and closed-roof games look like fantasy gold on the scoreboard, but the raw gap mostly reflects which teams happen to be playing indoors.
Read the research →
finding · Sep 3, 2026 · 3 min read
NFL Passing and Play Calling in Rain vs. Dry Games Through the 2024 NFL Season
Rain games show a real drop in completion rate and a smaller, less certain shift away from early-down passing — but no evidence of shorter targets or added turnovers.
Read the research →
explainer · Sep 3, 2026 · 4 min read
How Fourth Down Labs Separates Pregame and Postgame NFL Weather Evidence
Fourth Down Labs keeps two kinds of NFL weather evidence — what actually happened and what was forecast before kickoff — and only one of them can ever touch a projection.
Read the research →
tracker · Sep 3, 2026 · 4 min read
NFL Weather Forecast Accuracy: 6 vs. 24 Hours Before Kickoff
Across 2,205 cutoff-safe NOAA HRRR forecasts for NFL regular-season stadium-games, paired 6-hour forecasts outperformed 24-hour forecasts on temperature and wind in both model eras; the precipitation edge did not clear its uncertainty band.
Read the research →
myth-test · Sep 3, 2026 · 3 min read
Does 15+ MPH Wind Increase Fantasy Scoring Volatility in NFL Games Through the 2024 NFL Season
The windy-game volatility myth does not survive the numbers: no position group shows a statistically reliable widening of scoring spread in 15+ mph wind games.
Read the research →
comparison · Sep 3, 2026 · 3 min read
Do NFL Kickers Score More Fantasy Points in Domes Than Outdoors?
Dome and closed-roof games show more field-goal attempts, better accuracy, and higher combined kicker scoring than outdoor games — a retrospective association through the 2025 season.
Read the research →
comparison · Sep 3, 2026 · 4 min read
How Does 15+ MPH Wind Change NFL Fantasy Scoring by Position Through the 2024 NFL Season
Wind games look different by position, but only two groups show a supported scoring gap after adjustment.
Read the research →
explainer · Sep 3, 2026 · 4 min read
Passing and Scoring Evidence from Extreme Rain and Snow in NFL Games Through 2024
Four familiar weather questions, four samples too small to answer confidently — and what the descriptive numbers do (and don't) say for fantasy managers.
Read the research →
model-update · Sep 3, 2026 · 3 min read
NFL Weather Reduced Weekly Fantasy Projection Error, 2019–2024
A cutoff-safe weather challenger beat the existing weekly projection champion in all six held-out seasons from 2019 through 2024, with the biggest gains at quarterback and wide receiver.
Read the research →
finding · Sep 3, 2026 · 3 min read
Do NFL Deep-Target Rates and Efficiency Fall in 15+ MPH Wind Through the 2024 NFL Season
Wind doesn't stop NFL offenses from throwing deep — it makes the deep throws they attempt less efficient.
Read the research →
comparison · Sep 3, 2026 · 4 min read
Best and Worst NFL Stadiums by Adjusted Field-Goal Accuracy Since 2018
After adjusting for kick distance and season across 8,241 regular-season attempts, Allegiant Stadium leads on makes above expectation and FirstEnergy Stadium trails — but no stadium survives strict multiplicity correction.
Read the research →
finding · Sep 2, 2026 · 3 min read
NFL Passing Efficiency and Scoring at 15+ MPH Wind
In 1,323 outdoor and open-roof regular-season games, windy conditions came with less neutral passing, worse accuracy, and lower efficiency — but the evidence stops short of a pregame forecast tool.
Read the research →
finding · Sep 1, 2026 · 4 min read
Rookie WR top-36 hit rates by NFL Draft round: 38% in Round 1, 2% on Day 3
Across 445 drafted receivers from 2010–2023, first-round picks were the only cohort with better than a one-in-five chance of an immediate top-36 PPR season.
Read the research →
comparison · Sep 1, 2026 · 5 min read
Top-36 WR hit rates by Year 2: 55% in Round 1, 5% on Day 3
A second season lifts every early-round cohort, but it does little to rescue Day 3 wide receivers: only 12 of 259 had produced a top-36 PPR season by then.
Read the research →
finding · Aug 31, 2026 · 7 min read
Top-36 fantasy seasons by Year 3: 65% for Round 1 WRs, 6% for Day 3 WRs
We tracked all 445 wide receivers drafted from 2010–2023, including every miss.
Read the research →
myth-test · Aug 31, 2026 · 8 min read
Expected touchdowns beat last year’s TD total for next-season WR/TE forecasts
Across 649 consecutive WR/TE season pairs, the opportunity baseline reduced forecast error by 11.7%—useful as a tiebreaker, not a projection.
Read the research →Expected Touchdown Lab
Use the opportunity model behind our touchdown-regression study.