Aug 31, 2026 · Data through 2025
Top-36 fantasy seasons by Year 3: 65% for Round 1 WRs, 6% for Day 3 WRs
We tracked all 445 wide receivers drafted from 2010–2023, including every miss.
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Rookie wide receiver hit rates
NFL Draft capital, early-career fantasy outcomes, and the full drafted-player denominator.
THE QUESTION
How strongly should NFL Draft capital shape expectations for a rookie wide receiver?
NFL Draft capital is a strong prior: 65.5% of Round 1 receivers reached a top-36 fantasy season by Year 3, compared with 6.2% on Day 3.
READ THE RESULTS CORRECTLY
What this series measures
- Population
- Every wide receiver drafted in the eligible NFL Draft classes, including players with no recorded fantasy points.
- Primary hit
- At least one top-36 PPR season during the outcome window.
- Draft capital
- The player’s overall NFL Draft pick, summarized by round or draft-day tier.
PUBLISHED RESEARCH
Read the studies
1 published study
OPEN RESEARCH DATA
Download the results
Clean tables produced by the published analysis. Source terms and file hashes are in each article’s Research File.
CSV
Drafted WR outcomes
One row per drafted wide receiver with draft position and Year 1 through Year 3 hit outcomes.
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First three seasons
Player-season PPR totals used to classify top-36, top-24, and top-12 finishes.
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Hit rates by draft round
Sample sizes and fantasy hit rates for each NFL draft round.
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Hit rates by draft tier
Fantasy hit-rate summaries for Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, and Day 3 draft-capital tiers.
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