RESEARCH SERIES

How weather changes fantasy football

Wind, rain, snow, roofs, forecasts, and the conditions that actually change NFL games.

THE QUESTION

Which weather conditions matter enough to change a fantasy-football decision?

At the registered 15 mph threshold, outdoor NFL games showed meaningfully less passing and scoring: neutral early-down dropback rate fell 1.8 points, completion rate fell 2.3 points, pass EPA per dropback dropped 0.067, and combined points fell 3.8 versus games below 10 mph.

READ THE RESULTS CORRECTLY

What this series measures

Observed weather: Conditions recorded at or near the stadium; used only to study completed games.
Pregame forecast: A timestamped forecast available before kickoff; the only weather source eligible for projections.
Weather threshold: A preregistered condition level tested before the results were known.

PUBLISHED RESEARCH

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1 published study

Two charts show neutral dropback rate (play share) and pass EPA/dropback (EPA/play) by wind bin for 1,323 outdoor/open NFL games, 2018–2025; 20+ mph is sparse (n=31).

Sep 2, 2026 · Data through 2025 NFL season

NFL Passing Efficiency and Scoring at 15+ MPH Wind

In 1,323 outdoor and open-roof regular-season games, windy conditions came with less neutral passing, worse accuracy, and lower efficiency — but the evidence stops short of a pregame forecast tool.

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