Wind, rain, snow, roofs, forecasts, and the conditions that actually change NFL games.
14 published studies
· 4 min read
After adjusting for kick distance and season across 8,241 regular-season attempts, Allegiant Stadium leads on makes above expectation and FirstEnergy Stadium trails — but no stadium survives strict multiplicity correction.
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· 3 min read
Wind doesn't stop NFL offenses from throwing deep — it makes the deep throws they attempt less efficient.
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· 4 min read
Dome and closed-roof games look like fantasy gold on the scoreboard, but the raw gap mostly reflects which teams happen to be playing indoors.
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· 4 min read
Kicker scoring drops as soon as observed game wind passes 10 mph, and the damage grows with every threshold — but the evidence is retrospective, not a forecast.
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· 3 min read
Dome and closed-roof games show more field-goal attempts, better accuracy, and higher combined kicker scoring than outdoor games — a retrospective association through the 2025 season.
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· 3 min read
The windy-game volatility myth does not survive the numbers: no position group shows a statistically reliable widening of scoring spread in 15+ mph wind games.
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· 3 min read
A same-stadium comparison of 333 retractable-roof games through 2025 finds no reliable scoring or passing shift when the roof is open — but kickers made field goals at a meaningfully higher clip.
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· 4 min read
Wind games look different by position, but only two groups show a supported scoring gap after adjustment.
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· 4 min read
Fourth Down Labs keeps two kinds of NFL weather evidence — what actually happened and what was forecast before kickoff — and only one of them can ever touch a projection.
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· 3 min read
Rain games show a real drop in completion rate and a smaller, less certain shift away from early-down passing — but no evidence of shorter targets or added turnovers.
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· 4 min read
Across 2,205 cutoff-safe NOAA HRRR forecasts for NFL regular-season stadium-games, paired 6-hour forecasts outperformed 24-hour forecasts on temperature and wind in both model eras; the precipitation edge did not clear its uncertainty band.
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· 3 min read
A cutoff-safe weather challenger beat the existing weekly projection champion in all six held-out seasons from 2019 through 2024, with the biggest gains at quarterback and wide receiver.
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· 4 min read
Four familiar weather questions, four samples too small to answer confidently — and what the descriptive numbers do (and don't) say for fantasy managers.
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· 3 min read
In 1,323 outdoor and open-roof regular-season games, windy conditions came with less neutral passing, worse accuracy, and lower efficiency — but the evidence stops short of a pregame forecast tool.
Read studyWhich weather conditions matter enough to change a fantasy-football decision?