How Does 15+ MPH Wind Change NFL Fantasy Scoring by Position Through the 2024 NFL Season

If you have been benching every quarterback and wide receiver the moment the wind picks up, the data through 2024 says the scoring hit at those positions is too small and too noisy to act on. The positions where windy games actually show a supported scoring decline are tight ends and kickers.

The study compares NFL regular-season games with observed winds of at least 15 mph against games below 10 mph, using combined home-plus-away fantasy scoring for each position group. That means each number is the total PPR points both teams' quarterbacks (or running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, or kickers) produced in a game, so a smaller number means the whole position group scored less, not that one player slumped. The sample covers 101 windy games and 806 calm-wind games through the 2024 season, with adjustments for week, season, temperature, and which teams were playing.

Two position groups show a supported difference. Combined kicker fantasy points averaged 13.9 in 15+ mph wind games versus 16.0 in below-10-mph games; the adjusted change was -1.4 points with a 95% interval from -2.7 to -0.2 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.129. Combined TE PPR points averaged 22.4 versus 24.7; the adjusted change was -2.9 points with a 95% interval from -5.5 to -0.4 points and the same Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.129. The Holm adjustment is a correction for testing five position outcomes at once, so these p-values already account for the multiple comparisons; the intervals exclude zero, but the adjusted p-values sit above the conventional 0.05 threshold, which is why the evidence is best read as a consistent negative signal rather than a certainty.

The passing-game story you might expect is not supported here. Combined QB PPR points averaged 31.6 in windy games versus 33.8 in calm games, an adjusted change of -2.0 points with a 95% interval from -4.6 to +0.6 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.396. Combined WR PPR points averaged 63.0 versus 68.5, an adjusted change of -2.6 points with a 95% interval from -7.0 to +1.8 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.491. Both intervals cross zero, so the apparent declines could plausibly be noise. Running backs actually trend the other way: combined RB PPR points averaged 46.9 in windy games versus 45.0 in calm games, an adjusted change of +1.8 points with a 95% interval from -1.7 to +5.2 points and a Holm-adjusted p-value of 0.491 — a hint that ground games may pick up slack, but again the interval includes zero.

The pattern in the table is directionally coherent: every passing-adjacent group and kickers score less in windy games, while running backs score slightly more. But magnitude matters for fantasy decisions. A -2.0-point adjusted change spread across both teams' quarterbacks is roughly one point per side, and the interval stretches well past zero. The kicker decline of -1.4 combined points is the most precise estimate in the study, and the tight end decline of -2.9 combined points is the largest supported gap.

One boundary matters for how you use this. These are retrospective associations from observed game-window wind readings, not a test of whether a pregame forecast improves your projections. Wind that was actually blowing during a game cannot be known beforehand with the same precision, and the study does not claim that wind causes the scoring changes or that any individual player should be benched in a forecast. What it does establish is which position groups historically moved most when games were played in 15+ mph wind — and the answer is tight ends and kickers, not the quarterbacks and receivers the wind narrative usually targets.