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PUBLISHED RESEARCH / 02

The research
desk.

Only completed, published studies appear here. Open a Research File for methods, sources, and the review trail.

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OPEN RESEARCH FILES2
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FDL-002 · PASSED

Top-36 fantasy seasons by Year 3: 63% for Round 1 WRs, 6% for Day 3 WRs

NFL Draft capital is a strong prior: 62.7% of Round 1 receivers reached a top-36 fantasy season by Year 3, compared with 5.8% on Day 3.

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Published
2026-08-30
Data through
2024
Review records
3
Sources
2
RegistrationAnalysisDecisionManifest
FDL-001 · PASSED

Expected touchdowns predict next-season receiving TDs better than last year’s total

Expected touchdowns cut next-season forecast error by 8.9%, but they remain a tiebreaker—not a complete projection.

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Published
2026-08-30
Data through
2024
Review records
3
Sources
1
RegistrationAnalysisDecisionManifest